After Thursday’s dark session on Wall Street, investors are now discussing a valuation of $1.2 to $1.3 trillion for Anthropic’s IPO, with some mentioning $1.1 trillion. In early October, the discussion went as high as $2 trillion.
The figure has been circulating since this Friday, November 6th, and several outlets are only reporting the lower bound.Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter, that potential buyers are talking about a range of $1.2 to $1.3 trillion just days before the official marketing launch for the deal. Some are even considering $1.1 trillion. The $1.2 trillion figure picked up by several headlines is thus the low end of the range, and not even its floor: hence the importance of reading the full figure before sharing it.
Nothing is decided. The same source clarifies that discussions are ongoing and no final decision has been made, while Anthropic declined to comment.
After Nasdaq 100’s 6.4% Drop, Anthropic’s IPO is Being Reassessed
The trigger was the session on Thursday, November 5th. According to Bloomberg, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 6.4%, wiping out about $2.3 trillion in market capitalization, a record for a single session.
In this context, investors who need to fill the order book are recalculating. David Rainville of Sycomore believes that with a valuation around $1.2 trillion, Anthropic should not have trouble finding buyers. Max Kettner, a strategist at HSBC, thinks a level around $1 trillion would be more comfortable, because he wants to avoid a SpaceX-like scenario, where the stock soars for a few hours before falling back.
Anthropic’s Valuation: Five Weeks of Decline from a Mentioned $2 Trillion
The trend didn’t start on Thursday. On October 1st, Bloomberg reported an IPO targeted for mid-November, with investors willing to go up to $2 trillion. Two weeks later, after presenting third-quarter results to investors in San Francisco, Reuters noted that some were talking more about $1.5 trillion.
On November 2nd, the Wall Street Journal reported that institutional investors were asking for $1.5 to $1.6 trillion, after the previous week’s correction. The figures don’t match to the exact dollar: Bloomberg talks about a range of $1.4 to $1.5 trillion communicated to bankers, the Journal about $1.5 to $1.6 trillion. The direction, however, is the same.
At $1.2 trillion, the gap with the May fundraising ($65 billion on a $965 billion valuation) drops to about 24%, according to our calculations.
Anthropic’s IPO: A Fundraising of Up to $100 Billion Under Pressure
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal published another take: three prospective investors believe the $1.5 trillion will have to come down, and one of them mentions a level closer to $1 trillion. The fundraising, targeted at up to $100 billion, could be reduced, and one investor even mentions a postponement.
Bloomberg describes a third way: launch the marketing with a cautious size and valuation, then raise both if the reception is good. The same article adds that Cerebras and Figma are now trading well below their IPO price.
The roadshow is expected for the week of November 9th, and the listing could follow before Thanksgiving on November 26th, according to Bloomberg. Anthropic has not confirmed anything: its public filing, submitted on October 26th, leaves the price range and number of shares blank.
Anthropic’s Revenue: $16.8 Billion, But Slowing Growth
On the business side, the third quarter shows revenue of $16.8 billion, up 45% from the previous quarter, with a positive adjusted profit according to figures shared with investors. Reuters had linked the first valuation drop in October to the slowdown in this growth.
It remains to be seen whether $1.2 trillion is the last figure in the series or just this week’s: the price range, which must appear in an amended version of the filing before the roadshow, will provide a first answer.
