The financial market could see an unusual influx of retail investors during the stock market listing of Anthropic, developer of the Claude family of models. According to a note from Vanda Research published on November 11, 2026, these investors could make approximately $250 million in net purchases during the first session on the Nasdaq, scheduled for November 19. This amount would be double the $118 million recorded during SpaceX’s stock market listing, the benchmark record held by the firm.
Anthropic, a competitor of OpenAI, is preparing for this operation, which could mobilize unusual capital from retail investors. According to a note from Vanda Research reported by Reuters, these net purchases could reach around $250 million on the very first day of trading. The analysis firm bases its view on investor behavior during previous listings. ‘Judging by pre-IPO perpetual contract trading, Anthropic is shaping up to be a record-breaking listing for retail investors,’ says Viraj Patel, macro strategist at Vanda Research.
This is, however, a forecast and not an observed transaction volume. The November 19 session will need to confirm the scale of demand, in a market attentive to the valuation of artificial intelligence companies.
A valuation potentially reaching $1.4 trillion
Anthropic is reportedly targeting a valuation that could reach $1.4 trillion, according to Reuters. This level would place the company among the world’s most highly valued technology firms.
For investors, the central question remains the ability of these technologies to generate sustainable revenue. Training and operating language models, these systems capable of processing and producing text, require considerable computing resources. Their costs must be offset by growth in subscriptions, professional contracts, and the use of programming interfaces. The envisaged valuation thus constitutes a bet on the company’s prospects rather than a direct measure of its current profitability.
To establish its forecasts, Vanda Research relied on activity in financial contracts linked to Anthropic’s value before its listing. These instruments, known as pre-IPO perpetuals, allow taking a position on the anticipated value of a company not yet listed, without providing access to its shares. They are traded on platforms like Hyperliquid, among others. According to the firm’s reasoning, during major stock market listings this year, retail trading volume has generally reached about five times the peak volume observed on these contracts before listing. However, contracts linked to Anthropic reached a record volume of $270 million in a single day. This figure remains an indicator of speculative interest, with no guarantee that the same amounts will be invested.
Vanda Research also indicates that only six stocks have recorded more than $250 million in net purchases by retail investors in a single day since 2024. If these projections are confirmed, Anthropic would join this select group.
The AI market faces profitability demands
The interest in Anthropic comes in a context of intense competition. OpenAI, Google, and other providers are ramping up their investments to develop more powerful systems and expand their commercial offerings. Investors are now examining infrastructure spending, revenue growth, customer retention, and margin prospects, not just the technical quality of the models.
For client companies, the adoption of Claude depends on the economic value of deployed projects, security requirements, and operating costs. A multiplication of professional contracts could support growth expectations, while deployments less profitable than hoped could weigh on the provider’s outlook.
The first trading session will therefore be scrutinized on several levels: retail demand, price stability, the valuation achieved, and the perception of the economic potential of generative artificial intelligence. The $250 million put forward by Vanda Research remains, at this stage, an estimate.
